U.S. LNG Opportunity Knocking: Russian NatGas exports to Europe fall to 40-year lows
European nations, particularly in the east, have been reliant on Russian natural gas for decades. Change is happening there.
Fallout of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and older factors have led to EU countries seeking energy security elsewhere. The continent’s move away from fossil fuels toward more carbon-free or lower emitting resources also has negatively impacted the traditional Russian-European gas intake relationship.
A new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that Russia’s natural gas pipeline exports to Europe and the United Kingdom have declined by 50 percent so far this year compared with the previous five-year average dating back to 2017. In fact, the July average throughput of 1.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) was the lowest level in 40 years, according to the EIA.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., natural gas production is nearing historic highs, and companies such as Cherniere Energy and Sempra are developing liquified natural gas terminals to chill the production and ship it across the seas. Two weeks ago, the EIA calculated that the U.S. was the top LNG exporter in the world moving an average of 11.2 bcf/d in the first six months of 2022.
Russia has been transporting its exportable gas to Europe via one of three main pipelines, including the Nord Stream 1, the Yamai pipeline and via Ukraine. Due to a variety of factors, those exports to the EU and UK have been declining since 2020, mostly due to reduced demand during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic impact.
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The Nord Steam 1 line, which goes under the Baltic Sea into Germany, has experienced the most dramatic reduction, according to the EIA. Last month it moved about 1.4 bcf/d, only 20 percent of its design capacity.
Russian gas pipeline flows into Solvakia also have dropped significantly to less than half of the 4.4 bcf/d average in the previous five years.
Earlier this summer, the EIA reported that Europe had imported record amounts of LNG so far this year of between 16 billion and 19 bcf/d. Fourteen European nations have LNG import facilities, according to data from CEDIGAZ.
Natural gas, while a fossil fuel, is considered a net improvement environmentally because gas-fired power plants emit less than half of the carbon compared with a coal-fired power plant.
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(Rod Walton, senior editor for EnergyTech, is a 14-year veteran of covering the energy industry both as a newspaper and trade journalist. He can be reached at [email protected]).
