Shrinking Site Availability Threatens Renewable Energy Goals: Here's How Developers Can Adapt
Across the United States, renewable energy is reshaping the power generation landscape at a remarkable pace. In 2023, the U.S. set a new record for clean energy installations, surpassing the previous record by over 12%. Solar power, a key component of this growth, is projected to increase by 75% from 163 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023 to 286 billion kWh by 2025.
However, this unprecedented growth has revealed a critical challenge that could hinder progress: the dwindling availability of suitable land for solar and wind projects. Recent data from key U.S. markets across 12 states highlights this issue, revealing a sharp reduction in the number of viable sites, smaller parcel sizes, and decreasing feeder capacity.
For an industry already grappling with permitting delays and supply chain challenges, this emerging bottleneck could jeopardize our ability to meet ambitious net-zero targets. Thankfully, there is a path forward. By embracing innovative tools and data-driven strategies, developers can navigate these challenges and maintain their critical role in the clean energy transition.
A Drop in Suitable Sites
The decline in available land for renewable energy projects is stark. In Illinois, for example, the number of suitable sites—defined as parcels with +1 MW of feeder capacity and +15 buildable acres—dropped 41.9% between January and October 2024, with projections indicating a further 22.7% decline by mid 2025. New York saw a less dramatic but equally concerning 9.6% decrease during the same period.
Compounding the issue, the average parcel size is also shrinking. Developers in Illinois are now working with parcels that are, on average, 11.4% smaller than they were at the start of 2024. In New York, parcel sizes decreased by nearly 5%. Smaller parcels often mean more fragmented projects, requiring developers to piece together multiple properties, increasing the time, cost, and complexity of an already expensive and time-consuming process.
Perhaps most troubling is the decline in feeder capacity, a major factor in determining a site’s ability to produce and distribute energy. In both states, average feeder capacity has dropped by about 2%, with further declines anticipated. These reductions limit the efficiency of future projects while also exacerbating competition for the best remaining sites.
The Bigger Picture: A Nationwide Challenge
The trends in Illinois and New York are not isolated. Nationwide, the availability of suitable sites is projected to decline by 21.9% by mid-2025, with states like Oregon and Connecticut experiencing reductions of more than 30% in 2024.
The reasons for this decline are multifaceted. Expanding urban development, agricultural land preservation, and stricter environmental regulations are all contributing to a shrinking pool of land for renewable energy projects. Adding to the challenge, fragmented land ownership creates an additional layer of complexity, with thousands of individual landowners holding the remaining viable parcels.
Adapting to Power a Renewable Future
While the challenges are significant, they still offer opportunities for growth and innovation. The decrease in available land demands creative approaches to site selection and project development. Developers can take these steps to adapt and succeed:
- Leverage Advanced Site Selection Tools
Developers need data-driven insights to quickly identify and evaluate high-potential sites. Platforms like Paces provide real-time data on land suitability, feeder capacity, and permitting risks, enabling faster and more informed decisions. - Prioritize Early Risk Assessments
Delays in the permitting process can derail even the most promising projects. Early identification of zoning and regulatory hurdles can save developers months—if not years—in project timelines. - Streamline Landowner Coordination
Coordinating with thousands of individual landowners is a daunting task, but technology can help. Tools that simplify outreach, negotiation, and contract management can reduce friction and speed up land acquisition. - Focus on High-Potential Jurisdictions
Despite the challenges, some areas remain more favorable than others. In Illinois, for example, 174 administrative jurisdictions still have ten or more suitable sites. Developers who act quickly in these regions can secure valuable parcels before they are claimed by competitors. - Adopt Scalable Technology
Artificial intelligence and machine learning are transforming renewable energy development. These technologies can analyze vast datasets to predict land availability trends, assess risks, and optimize project planning, giving developers a competitive edge.
The Stakes Are High
If we fail to address the issue of shrinking land availability, the consequences could be dire. Slower project timelines, higher costs, and reduced energy output could hinder our ability to meet both energy demand and climate goals. Yet, with decisive action and a commitment to innovation, this challenge can become an opportunity.
The renewable energy sector has a proven track record of overcoming obstacles through resilience and ingenuity. By leveraging advanced tools and strategies, developers can secure the remaining viable sites and drive progress toward a cleaner, more reliable energy future. The time to act is now.
